BCS Scenarios

This past weekend was one of the most exciting in college football history.  Was it BCS chaos?  Not really.  I just call it high intensity palate cleansing.

If chaos is your pleasure, the next two weekends could deliver a heaping dose for you.  Let’s take a look at some scenarios involving the four top-ranked schools in the BSC standings: LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma State.  Of course, LSU hosts Arkansas on Friday, Alabama visits Auburn and Oklahoma State has a week off before playing hosting in-state rival Oklahoma on Dec. 3.  The SEC championship game is also Dec. 3.

LSU beats Arkansas and beats Georgia.  Alabama beats Auburn.  Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma.  This is the easiest scenario to map out. The Tigers would head to Atlanta to play Georgia and with a win there, the Tigers and Bama would meet in a rematch in New Orleans.  Oklahoma State would finish on the outside looking in at No. 3 in the BCS standings.  The wrench in this scenario is if Alabama lays a stink bomb in beating Auburn while the Cowboys destroy Oklahoma.  In that case, it’s not entirely outside the realm of the possible for the Pokes to jump Bama.

LSU beats Arkansas and loses to Georgia.  Alabama beats Auburn.  Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma.  This scenario may cause full-on chaos.  Alabama would most likely punch a ticket to New Orleans, but would LSU get a mulligan because losing to Georgia was their first loss?  It would depend on how the game plays out, but most likely so.  It would also depend on how soundly Alabama beats Auburn and how soundly OSU beats Oklahoma.  Again, if Bama lays an egg and the Cowboys destroy OU, the Pokes could get the nod.

Arkansas beats LSU.  Alabama beats Auburn.  Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma.  This scenario = chaos.  This one gets a little complicated:

  • If the Hogs win by a slim margin and the Tide wins without a problem at Auburn, the Tide would most likely go to Atlanta to play the Dawgs via being higher ranked in the BCS standings.  [See edit below.]
  • If the Hogs roll and Bama struggles at Auburn, the Hogs could jump to No. 1 in the standings and head to Atlanta instead of Bama.  [See edit below.]
  • Obviously, if LSU beats Georgia they are in the championship game, but that is also the case for Alabama or Arkansas.  For either of those to play in Atlanta, they would be ranked No. 1 in the BCS and however they beat the Dawgs would get them to New Orleans.
  • But here’s the tricky part.  What if Bama wins in unimpressively against Auburn and is jumped by the Hogs?  How far would LSU fall?  It’s possible if the Tigers lose a close game to Arkansas that the Tide could win against Auburn, but fall to No. 3 in the standings and be left out.
  • Then Bama would need Georgia to beat Arkansas to ensure a rematch vs. LSU.
  • It’s also possible that Oklahoma State to enter this mix if they beat Oklahoma impressively.

Like I said, this scenario = chaos.

[Edit: According to the SEC’s tiebreaker rules, Alabama would most likely go to Atlanta under this scenario.  Assuming an Arkansas win, Alabama would most likely be no lower than 2nd in the standings and would trump Arkansas via the tiebreaker.  If Arkansas won and ascended to first, but LSU fell to 2nd and Bama remained at 3rd, then the Tide would be left out of Atlanta and would have to hope Georgia beats the Hogs.]

Arkansas beats LSU and Georgia.  Alabama loses to Auburn.  Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma.  Compared to the previous scenario, this one is relatively easy to digest.  Arkansas would be in the title game.  Depending on how close the loss was to the Hogs, LSU could possibly stop at No. 2 and see the Razorbacks in New Orleans.  If LSU’s loss to Arkansas was close, I don’t think it would matter how badly Oklahoma State beat the Sooners.

Arkansas beats LSU and loses to Georgia.  Alabama loses to Auburn.  Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma.  This one is pretty easy:  LSU vs. Oklahoma State in New Orleans.

Arkansas beats LSU and loses to Georgia.  Alabama loses to Auburn.  Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma.  Another case of chaos.  If the loss to Arkansas was close, LSU would play in New Orleans.  Who would they play?  Well, the next one-loss teams would be No. 5 Virginia Tech, No. 6 Stanford and No. 7 Boise State.  The highest ranked of those three would be the Tigers’ date.  Again, chaos.

The best thing Alabama can do is to beat Auburn in impressive fashion.  That doesn’t guarantee a trip to Atlanta or New Orleans, but it’s they only thing the Tide has control over.  The next best thing is for LSU to win.  Then, regardless of what happens in Atlanta, the Tide can start packing for New Orleans.

What have I missed here?  Let me know what you think.

Roll Tide!


15 thoughts on “BCS Scenarios

  1. Not usually a grammar guy, BD, but just so you can fix it…
    “If you want chaos is your pleasure…”
    Probably meant, “If you want chaos…” or “If chaos is your pleasure…”

  2. Why does Virginia Tech get zero respect? They could win out and get redemption on Clemson (their only loss) in the championship game. It’s not like Clemson was a push over.

    Hell everyone was still talking about Oklahoma playing for it after losing to Texas Tech until they lost to Baylor. Even now Oklahoma is ranked ahead of UGA who has lost to two respectable top 15 teams. Texas Tech is not respectable.

    I want the SEC champ to play the champion from the next strongest conference. Bama lost their playoff game against LSU.

    • Well, it’s just a beauty contest and the ACC just doesn’t score very well. VT got hammered by Clemson which also doesn’t help their case.

      I tend to agree about Oklahoma, but UGA is hurt because I don’t think most people want to put them ahead of Boise.

      I also agree that we had our shot. But the game went to overtime and was decided by only a few plays, so that kind of makes Bama the “next best team.”

      • On the Oklahoma point, I don’t understand the logic. UGA can’t be ranked ahead of Boise, but Oklahoma can be ranked ahead of Baylor? I’m not saying UGA should be ahead of Boise, but I am emphatically saying that I am sick of all the man love poured on OU for absolutely no reason.

        The way OU lost to Texas Tech and Baylor is enough proof they are not top 10 material. Maybe not top 20. OSU will destroy them. Willie Martinez will ensure OSU scores at least 45.

        I really wish we could get a playoff comprised of conference champions. That’s how the high schools do it. Seems to work pretty well.

  3. “If the Hogs roll and Bama struggles at Auburn, the Hogs could jump to No. 1 in the standings and head to Atlanta instead of Bama.”

    In this scenariao, Arkansas can only go to Atlanta if LSU finishes ranked higher than Alabama, which probably won’t happen. I think LSU drops to #3 if they lose to Arkansas, no matter what. And that leaves Alabama at #2, and they punch their ticket to the Georgia Dome.

  4. what happens if LSU loses to Arkansas, Alabama wins against Auburn, and Arkansas loses the SEC title game to Georgia? who is in the title game?

    • In that case, Bama would play in Atlanta.

      LSU has a good shot at the title game even if they lose against Arkansas or Georgia.

  5. Thanks for a great view of what could happen. How long did it take you to write this article?

  6. Hell, it took me an hour or so just to read and digest what you wrote…..honestly, how long did it take to research and put together this fine article?

    • Well, thanks again. The problem was just identifying the scenarios. To be honest, I hope this is a lot of hot air. 🙂 I hope we take care of business and take advantage of this second chance we’ve been given.

      • I don’t know why you keep dancing around my direct question. Certainly it took you quite awhile to run these possible outcomes and i just want to know how long to bounce them around. Also, do you think
        Bear maybe talked to God a little bit before this last weekend? Things don’t just happen in our favor like this, there had to be devine guidance…thanks

  7. I’m not dancing…I’m guessing maybe an hour…I don’t have a lot of time to blog with family and work obligations so I’m guessing I wasn’t able to stay in one place for longer than an hour. 🙂

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