Oregon, we hardly knew ye and some BCS Scenarios

Stanford and Oregon played a great game last night.  Old guy football won again and, unless something extremely weird happens, the Ducks are out of the BCS chase.

Obviously, Florida State fans must be ecstatic with the results.  And Ohio State fans probably aren’t sad, either.

In terms of making it back to Pasadena, last night really didn’t create a ripple in ‘Bama’s pond.  IF Alabama takes care of business and wins out.  But could last night’s upset be good for the Tide if we manage to stumble somehow in these last games?

Perhaps.

Let’s for a moment look at a bad case scenario*.  That would mean a loss for ‘Bama in one of the final games and that would mean next man up and FSU would slide to number one and Ohio State to two.  The Seminoles have Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho and Florida left in the regular season and probably a rematch against Miami in the ACC championship game.  I like their chances to win out, but the rematch against the ‘Canes could cause some trouble.  OSU has Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and then a likely Big 10 title game match up against Michigan State.  I really like the Spartans to knock off the Buckeyes in that one.

So, if the Buckeyes lose and the ‘Noles win out, what would that mean?  It could mean that Baylor – if they win out – moves up to number two.  That’s entirely possible, but it’s not a guarantee. I think there’s a great deal of mid major sentiment associated with Baylor and I think a won loss school like Alabama or Oregon would received a lot of support to play in the championship game instead of the Bears.  There’s also the fact that the Big 12 doesn’t have a championship game.  If either FSU or Ohio State losses (one, not both), then it’s possible the Tide could slip back into the picture.  In this case, an early loss for ‘Bama (like against LSU) would be better than a late loss (I think) and a good loss (overtime or close loss) would be better than an ugly loss (duh).

In any case, I vote for making it easy on ourselves and just winning out.

[* Bad case scenario isn’t the same as worst case scenario.  We’ve already lived through the worst case scenario in the 2010 Iron Bowl.]

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